New polling numbers out of the states of Ohio and Wisconsin are very good news for Mitch McConnell and very bad news for Chuck Schumer. Panic seems to be setting in for Democrats as they see their chances of retaining control of the Senate slip from their grasp.
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In Ohio, Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown is consistently polling behind his Republican rival, Bernie Moreno. RedState reported last week on polling from RMG Research that showed Moreno ahead of Brown by a 48 percent to 46 percent margin. New polling out from ActiVote confirms Moreno’s lead, with the new data having Moreno sitting at 51.1 percent while Brown is at 48.9 percent. That’s a pretty consistent 2 percent-plus lead for the Republican challenger with just under five weeks until election day.
There have been signs that Democrats were getting ready to call it quits on Sherrod Brown, most notably the lack of funds flowing into his campaign from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). The DSCC seemed to be diverting funds from Ohio into the Senate race in Montana, where incumbent Jon Tester is facing stiff competition from Republican Tim Sheehy.
Seeing their chances of retaining Senate control dwindling, the DSCC decided to focus on the races in Texas and Florida, where Republican incumbents Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are up for reelection. This could well be a Hail Mary pass from Democrats, who are desperate to keep Chuck Schumer as majority leader.
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The Dems haven’t completely given up on Ohio, with plenty of outside money being spent in the state by PACs, but a recent fundraising appeal seems to confirm that the party is hitting the panic button:
“This is bad,” the Ohio Democratic Party said in a campaign fundraising email soon after the polls were released. “We can’t let Bernie Moreno gain any more ground — not if we want to keep the Senate blue.“
They may find it hard to keep the Senate blue if polling out of Wisconsin proves true. Democrat Tammy Baldwin is hoping to get a third Senate term, but recent internal polling shows she is losing significant ground to Republican Eric Hovde.
Baldwin leads by just two points in internal Democratic polling, a source familiar with the campaign told Axios. That is much closer than what public polling has shown for months.
‘Alarm Bells’: Dems Now Panicking About Senate Race in Wisconsin
Keeping Baldwin’s Senate seat wasn’t supposed to be challenging for Democrats; unlike Sherrod Brown’s race, the DSCC has put money into her campaign, to the tune of $7 million. Someone who sees an opening for Republicans in Wisconsin is Mitch McConnell, whose Senate Leadership Fund is pouncing on the opportunity by investing $17 million into Hovde’s race. Mitch would love nothing better than to boot Chuck Schumer right back into the minority, a possibility that seems to be inching closer to reality. That would be almost as satisfying to watch as seeing Nancy Pelosi having to hand over the Speaker’s gavel … twice.
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(Incidentally, the race to replace Mitch McConnell as majority/minority leader is on, with the options now down to the “three Johns”: John Thune, John Cornyn and John Barrasso.)
It does look like Chuck Schumer’s days as majority leader are coming to an end, and that’s a good thing. If the Democrats were to take the White House, a GOP-controlled Senate would be an important check on the radical agenda sure to be pushed by the executive branch.