Early voting is underway nationwide, the last rounds of polling are being undertaken, and a good hard look at what’s going on can only leave one with the impression that the Trump/Vance campaign is a lot happier than the Harris/Walz camp right now. It’s a bit early to break out the celebratory champaign and Big Macs, but all in all, it’s looking like it’s Trump’s year.
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There’s another indicator: Betting odds are also trending towards the GOP, and those have been predictive in the past .
Well over $500 million were bet on the 2020 election, and that number has surged in 2024. Just under two weeks out, more than $2.3 billion have been bet on the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket alone. This raises the question: What is election betting, and do betting odds reflect actual probability?
Maxim Lott, founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, explained to the Washington Examiner why betting odds are more predictive than the polls and revealed the “turning point” that jump-started former President Donald Trump’s rise in the election odds and polling.
“The betting odds are more reliable because people have to put their money where their mouths are,” Lott said. “That makes most people think twice, and to be more careful, before they weigh in about who will actually win.”
That’s an interesting outlook, but you can color me skeptical. Granted, at least on this site, ElectionBettingOdds.com, the track record appears to be pretty good. But this year, there’s more to it than people being willing to put their money where their votes are. But first – what are the betting odds telling us? Have a look:
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For reference, here is Friday’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) no-tossup map:
Very similar, aren’t they? And that, dear readers, is the source of my skepticism. I’m not generally a betting man; in my youth, I was fond of joking, “I only gamble with my life.” These days, I’ve become much more conservative (hah) in such things. But were I thinking of laying a bet on the presidential election, or indeed any election, the first thing I would do is to look at the state of the current polling. That would very likely influence my bet. Thus, my doubt; I suspect that the begging odds are not a leading indicator, but rather a trailing indicator, fueled in no small part by the state of polling.
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The other problem is that this is not like any previous election, at least not in recent history – and by recent, I mean in the last hundred years or so. We have, essentially, two incumbents running against one another for the White House, a sitting vice president of what honest information brokers can only describe as a shambles of a presidential administration – who, incidentally, is running a shambles of a campaign – and a former president, with his track record, seeking to Grover Cleveland himself into a non-consecutive term. As I’ve said repeatedly, we’re literally in an undiscovered country in this election.
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Even so. Right now, were I involved in either campaign, I’d be a lot happier to be on Team Trump than on Team Harris. But not because of people gambling on the election. It’s an interesting indicator, but I wouldn’t – yes, I know – bet on it.