Texas is currently one of four states averaging gasoline prices under $3 per gallon. That means Texans are enjoying some of the lowest prices at the pump in the U.S. With the official start of summer — peak travel season — just a few weeks away, many will soon be spending even more on transportation as they plan summer trips. Here’s what Texans should know before they go:
What determines prices? (It’s complicated)
U.S. travel tends to peak in the summer, and that means vacationers are using a lot of fuel. Increasing demand is one factor in higher gas prices, though, it’s far from the only one.
Oil refineries maintenance has an outsize impact on pricing. That’s because capacity is diminished during maintenance — which is an even bigger problem if it comes at the same time as the changeover to summer-blend gasoline.
“It’s going to mean that there’s a very big crimp in the amount of the summer gasoline that’s being produced at the same time refineries have a diminished ability because of maintenance,” said Patrick De Haan, of fuel-price tracking service GasBuddy .
That typically leads to prices peaking in April or May, though it varies by region.
Summer-blend gasoline, which is formulated to prevent excessive evaporation in warmer temperatures, costs more to produce. There are also more types of summer-blend gasoline than winter-blend since state and regional requirements vary.
Dallas-Fort Worth is among other high-smog regions nationwide that are required to use reformulated gasoline designed to burn more cleanly than conventional gas.
Particularly warm states like Texas also can use summer fuel beyond the end of the federal summer gasoline calendar switchover date of Sept. 15, De Haan said, meaning there is less supply at the end of the season.
It’s worth noting that consumers get more bang for their buck at the pump in warmer months, since summer blends offer higher miles-per-gallon than winter blends.
Things should remain steady — if Texas weather cooperates
Gas in the Dallas metro area is down five cents from a month ago. If current trends continue, gas prices could drift a little lower and will probably “feel very close to last year,” De Haan said. That’s barring any refinery shutdowns brought on by extreme weather events like hurricanes.
Federal forecasters have predicted as many as 25 named storms during the 2024 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
“Hurricane season is projected to be very busy this year, so while the ingredients usually lead to a peak in the spring, there is a possibility that we could see another run at that peak later this year — depending on what’s happening with demand and what’s happening with refineries,” De Haan said.