Who will be the next Texas Ranger in the Hall of Fame? It may take a while.

ARLINGTON, Texas — Ian Kinsler won’t make the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

The former Texas Rangers second baseman — a club Hall of Famer and a mainstay on the some of the best teams in Rangers history — received just 10 votes from the baseball writers, a mark of 2.5% that fell well short of the necessary 5% to remain on the ballot.

That’s no knock on Kinsler; he was a four-time All-Star who hit 257 homers from a middle infield position and racked up 54.1 wins above replacement in his 14-year career, a resume that at least gave voters something to think about. Kinsler was also a playoff star for the Rangers, batting .303 with four homers and a .413 on-base percentage in the team’s run to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011.

He was an easy choice for the Rangers Hall of Fame, which inducted him in 2022.

But the National Baseball Hall of Fame is another bar entirely, and Kinsler was a classic case of a guy who was comfortably in the “Hall of Very Good” territory. A great career, but a slight notch below Cooperstown.

Which is why Adrian Beltre’s Hall of Fame induction in 2024 — on his first ballot appearance, no less — was so rare. In the Rangers’ 50-plus years in Arlington, only nine Hall of Famers have suited up for the club, and only three have donned a Rangers cap on their bronze plaque: Nolan Ryan, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and Beltre.

Beltre could be the last Ranger in Cooperstown for a long time. Outside of Kinsler, the 2025 ballot was sparse with Rangers ties. 

Carlos Beltran earned 57.1% of the vote in his third year, and he’ll likely make the Hall eventually. But he only spent a half-season in Arlington, at the end of his career. Then there’s Alex Rodriguez at 34.8% in his fourth year, seemingly stuck in neutral among the steroid-linked players. Even if A-Rod were to make the Hall, he’d likely be inducted as a Yankee, not for his three-year stint with the Rangers. Omar Vizquel is another former Ranger down the ballot, at 17.7% in his eighth year. But his chances look less and less likely, and he only played one season for the Rangers in a 24-year career. 

So who’s the next Ranger in the Hall of Fame? And how long until that happens?

Here’s what the landscape looks like moving forward:

The Rangers don’t have many players on the next few ballots, and 2026 could knock out three of them. 

Cole Hamels

Hamels makes his debut on the ballot next year, and to be clear: If he makes the Hall, he’ll be inducted as a Philadelphia Phillie, his first and longtime team and where he earned World Series MVP honors in 2008. But Hamels spent enough time in Texas (around three seasons total) and helped the Rangers to a pair of AL West division titles. 

Now, for his case: It could be close.

The talk on social media this week was how weak the 2026 first-time class will be, but Hamels has the best case among them. If he can clear the first ballot, he’ll give voters something to think about moving forward, as they re-adjust their expectations for starting pitchers in a modern era of inning limits and a heavier reliance on relievers.

Hamels didn’t crack 200 wins (he had 163) or 3,000 strikeouts (he had 2,560), but those rough guidelines will continue to lower for Hall of Fame entry over the next decade, or we may just not see many starting pitchers get in. Hamels’ best case is a career comparison to Felix Hernandez, the former Mariners star who earned around 20% of the vote in his first time on the ballot this year. 

Hamels and Hernandez had remarkably similar career totals; around the same win total (163 for Hamels, 169 for Hernandez), ERA (3.43 for Hamels, 3.42 for Hernandez), strikeouts (2,560 for Hamels, 2,524 for Hernandez), ERA+ (123 for Hamels, 117 for Hernandez). Hernandez pitched more innings (2,729.2 to Hamels’ 2,698) but Hamels compiled 10 more wins above replacement (59.0 to Hernandez’s 49.7).

The difference is Hernandez had a stronger peak, won a Cy Young (Hamels did not) and led a league category 28 times. Hamels led a league category twice. For now, Hernandez is the stronger Hall of Fame candidate for the modern era; lesser career totals than traditional standards but a run of dominance. Hamels might have been more consistent, but he was less dominant.

Both players speak to the Hall’s high bar. They were bona fide aces for a decade, yet far from locks for Cooperstown.

If Hamels manages to stay on the ballot for a few years, he’ll have a chance.

Shin-Soo Choo

Choo, like Hamels, debuts on the ballot next year. He spent more time in Arlington than Hamels — 2014-2020 — so there’s a chance he’d be inducted as a Ranger. But there’s also little chance he’d be inducted, and he likely won’t clear the first ballot. 

Choo was always a valuable player and carried a career on-base percentage of .377, even clearing .400 a couple times. That’s an elite ability to get on base. But poor defense dragged down his wins above replacement — he finished with just 34.6 over 16 seasons — and he never hit more than 24 home runs. His lone league-leading category came in 2013, when he was hit by 26 pitches, and his lone All-Star season came in 2018. Good player. At times, very good. But not a Hall of Famer.

Hunter Pence

Pence, an Arlington native, also makes the ballot next year. He likely won’t stay on the ballot beyond 2026, but this is worth noting: One of his best seasons was the one he spent with the Rangers. In 2019, Pence batted 2.97 with 18 homers and a .910 on-base plus slugging percentage, good for his third All-Star nod. The career numbers for Pence just aren’t there for an extended stay on the ballot.

Nelson Cruz

Cruz will debut on the ballot in 2029, and he should have a much better chance of tallying votes than Choo and Pence. And he’s also likely to be remembered most as a Ranger, despite the 2011 World Series moment that fans have tried to forget. 

Cruz has a couple complicating factors, despite racking up great career totals as a hitter. His lack of defense and then shift to a full-time designated hitter dragged down his wins above replacement, despite six seasons of at least 35 homers. He also was suspended in 2013, while still with the Rangers, for violating baseball’s steroid policy.

Cruz actually had his best stint as a hitter after leaving the Rangers, and he finished with 464 career homers. He was also a seven-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and the American League Championship Series MVP in 2011, before the World Series snafu. Cruz was a great hitter, as consistent of a slugger as anyone in baseball for a time. He might even clear his first appearance on the ballot — 464 homers is not nothing — but he’ll have a hard case for many years beyond that.

Now we’re getting into guys who won’t see a ballot for more than five years, and who might be longshots either way. But let’s start with one who is certainly not a longshot.

Max Scherzer

Scherzer seems to be coming back somewhere in 2025, just not with the Rangers. But he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, no doubt. It’s just that he won’t be remembered much as a Ranger, outside of Texas, where fans will always associate the Scherzer trade with the team’s 2023 World Series run. Scherzer wasn’t his dominant self in Texas, at least not that we saw, but he was a key arm for the Rangers and started several major playoff games down the stretch. He’s an all-time legend, even if Texas caught him on the back end of his career. Only Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw can match Scherzer in this era.

Jacob deGrom

deGrom, who is expected to return fully healthy for the 2025 season, is at a career inflection point, in terms of a Hall of Fame case. He was generationally good with the New York Mets but the injuries crept up, and then have mostly sidelined him in two seasons with the Rangers. The headline here? If deGrom pitches most of the next three seasons, he will make the Hall of Fame. If injuries derail the rest of his time with the Rangers — and in effect, his career — then he’ll be a borderline candidate.

As it stands now, deGrom is a two-time Cy Young winner and the only active starting pitcher with a WHIP (walks plus hits over innings pitched) under 1.00. deGrom is also the active leader in fielding independent pitching (2.59) and strikeouts-to-walks ratio (5.41), a category he also leads all-time. deGrom has led a league category 12 times, including an ERA title in 2018, and the lead-leading number would be much higher if he wasn’t pitching in the National League at the same time as Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.

But deGrom’s hurdle has, and will be, the traditional counting stats. He just doesn’t have enough — wins (86), strikeouts (1666), and innings pitched (1367). 

The wins shouldn’t be a major problem; the stat has consistently been devalued, and there are better ways to measure a pitcher’s effectiveness. But deGrom simply needs to pitch more, something like 20-30 starts over the next three years, to rack up some more of those counting stats, perhaps even pick up a third Cy Young and remind future voters of his dominance in New York. A Chris Sale-like comeback season will get deGrom back in the Hall of Fame discussion.

Marcus Semien

Semien likely falls into the same boat as Ian Kinsler, an All-Star caliber second baseman with home run power and an impressive amount of wins above replacement, thanks to a sharp glove and incredible durability. I don’t think that will be enough, however. Semien is 34 and needs four more solid seasons to reach the career totals that can at least get him in the conversation. If Semien finishes with over 2,000 hits and around 60 wins above replacement (he’s currently at 1,505 and 45, respectively), he will give voters plenty to think about. 

Semien also has three top three MVP finishes, which is different than actually winning one. But those were three elite seasons (2019, 2021, 2023), the last one capped by a World Series title. 

Ultimately, though, I think Semien’s “rate” stats will keep him from serious Hall induction. He’s a career .255 hitter with a .323 on-base percentage and a .763 on-base plus slugging percentage. You can make a great career out of those numbers, with Semien’s defense and durability, but it’s hard to make the Hall.

Corey Seager

Seager is similar to deGrom in that his rate stats and peak years are Hall of Fame level, but his durability has held him back. But unlike deGrom, Seager has more time to catch up and buoy those counting stats in the next five years. 

Seager, 30, is a 10-year vet but younger than people realize. Despite some nagging injuries, there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to finish out his contract through 2031, although he likely won’t play shortstop that entire time. But on that note, Seager for the last decade has been ranked among the best shortstops in baseball, and the best hitting shortstop by a sizable margin when you look at stats like OPS (.872) and OPS+ (135). Seager has also upped his power stats since joining the Rangers, hitting at last 30 homers in three straight seasons. If he’s healthy for a full season, 40 homers is not out of the question.

Where Seager needs to keep playing catch-up is on categories like wins above replacement, homers and hits. He’s at 36.8 WAR, well behind one shortstop age comp in Francisco Lindor (49.6). Lindor has a better glove and better durability, but Seager is the better hitter, most years.

Entering 2025, Seager has 1,151 hits and 200 homers. Even in an age of analytics, he’ll need to clear 2,000 hits and 300 homers to get serious Hall consideration. The one unique factor for Seager has been his postseason play. One World Series MVP likely won’t sway a voter’s opinion, but two might. Seager’s 2023 postseason performance with the Rangers elevated his statue in that regard.

Wyatt Langford

Disclaimer: This is NOT a Hall of Fame projection. But among the Rangers’ younger players, Langford has the most talent, and time, to build a noteworthy career. He is just 23 with a full season under his belt, which included 3.9 in wins above replacement despite a rocky start. Langford has the speed to rack up steals and play solid defense and, in effect, keep his “WAR floor” high. If he can figure out some launch angle things and hit more homers than his rookie year (he had 16), Langford will be a consistent All-Star. That’s still a long way from being a Hall of Famer, but his career will be one worth monitoring.