AUSTIN (KXAN) — We’re watching what is now a tropical wave moving toward Florida with the potential to grow into a slightly stronger Tropical Depression over the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Potential for a Tropical Depression
As of Saturday evening the National Hurricane Center have the odds that our wave turns into a Tropical Depression at 50%.
Area to watch for potential development into a Tropical Depression
A Tropical Depression occurs when you have an area of low pressure with thunderstorms and a circular wind flow, but the maximum sustained wind speeds are less than 39 mph.
The Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm, but the tropical low expected to move across it may do so too quickly to strengthen much before arriving in Texas late Monday into early Tuesday.
Big Picture
We have an increasingly strong area of high pressure setting up in the Midwest, influencing the weather across most of the country.
Heat Dome
The strong high pressure will steer the tropical low around it in a clockwise motion. That will help to pull the low from Florida to Texas. The strength of the high will serve to prevent the low from moving farther north, keeping the low on the periphery of the sinking air caused by the high.
The rainfall
The strength of the high will serve to keep most of the rain away from Central Texas, unfortunately. Our best chance for rain appears to be on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. We’ll be right on the edge of the rain bands, meaning some areas probably won’t get rain at all.
ECMWF (European model) future radar on Tuesday
Measurable rain chances in Central Texas continue to be 30%, with the highest rain probabilities being areas south of Austin. The farther north you live, the less rain you will see…if you get any at all.
Rainfall forecast
The last measurable rain in Austin at Camp Mabry was back on July 22, almost a full month ago. On that day we picked up 0.01″ which was just enough to end our previous dry stretch.
The last time it rained more than a tenth of an inch was on June 22!
The temperatures
Even if we don’t get much, or any, rain on Tuesday…we should still see more clouds in Central Texas. Even the additional clouds alone *could* be enough to knock high temperatures below triple digits for the first time in weeks.
We’re currently forecasting highs in Austin to still reach 100º on Tuesday, but it’s going to be close! Any wiggles north with this storm would be in our favor.
Highs in Austin the next 4 days
Tropics becoming active
As we near the peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season on Sept. 10, we’re seeing a big increase in the number of potential development zones in the Atlantic.
Areas to watch
Aside from the potential for development in the Gulf of Mexico, we have Tropical Depression Six and three other areas to watch for tropical system development.
All the while, we’re watching Hurricane Hilary heading toward Southern California as a Tropical Storm. Who would have thought California would have a named storm before Texas this year? Or any year for that matter!
The First Warning Weather Team will keep updating the forecast, so keep checking back.
Here’s hoping for wetter and cooler days and weeks ahead.
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