The political conventions are over and candidates are in the final stretch to the Nov. 5 general election.
Labor Day used to be the unofficial start of campaign season, now it’s another marker along the way to the finish line.
Much has changed in the few months since the primary season. Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, turning what some analysts thought would be a victory for former President Donald Trump into a race that’s too close to call.
November’s outcome will hinge on whether Harris can continue her momentum and bring new Democratic voters to the polls. Trump will have to figure out how to offset Harris’ momentum or risk a second straight defeat.
The revamped presidential contest has had a ripple effect down the ballot — even in Texas, where Republicans have controlled statewide races since 1994. Despite Harris’ surge, Republicans remain favored to continue their dominance, but they could be in for a tougher fight than in previous election cycles.
North Texas political consultant Jeff Dalton said young voters, women and voters of color are providing much of the Democrats’ newfound energy. He said turnout levels in Black precincts could rival the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections that featured Barack Obama.
“It’s just off the chain. And I’m expecting a really 2008, 2012-style turnout in the African American base,” Dalton said. “That’s kind of transforming the situation.”
A poll released last week by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University revealed Trump leading Harris 49% to 44%, a much narrower margin than previous polls featuring Biden.
The enthusiasm around Harris could be impacting the Senate contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Rep, Colin Allred, D-Dallas. In the same poll, Cruz led Allred by 2 percentage points.
A surge of Texans voting for Harris could help Allred, since the Senate race is high on the ballot and Cruz is unpopular with most Democrats.
Allred, however, is not publicly linking himself to Harris, choosing to make his race a referendum on Cruz and not a party-building exercise.
Harris voters are likely to naturally gravitate towards Allred, even if he doesn’t make strong partisan appeals.
Allred is also trying to rally women voters who are concerned that Republicans have taken away their reproductive rights, including access to abortion. Mixed with the Harris enthusiasm, it’s a boost for Allred.
Cruz is a veteran of tough political fights.
He was the underdog in his 2012 Senate primary against then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. He won that crowded primary to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Dallas, in a late-summer runoff.
In 2018 Cruz was pushed to the brink by former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the El Paso Democrat who raised $80 million and came within 2.6 percentage points of an upset.
Cruz won that race by mobilizing Texas conservatives, essentially holding onto his GOP base well enough to overcome O’Rourke. Cruz managed to cast O’Rourke as too liberal for Texas. He’ll try to replicate that strategy with Allred, who is touting bipartisanship.
The 2018 midterm election included Gov, Greg Abbott, who used his resources to help down-ballot Republicans. Cruz has to hope the conservative advantage in the statewide electorate holds. Consider that since 1994, O’Rourke has been the only statewide Democrat to come close to winning against a Republican.
But Cruz and Republicans can’t take anything for granted.
The Harris-Trump dynamic could play a role in other down-ballot contests.
In Dallas County, Democrats are pushing to unseat State Reps. Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Garland, the two remaining House Republicans in the county. In 2021 the GOP-controlled Legislature redrew the districts’ boundaries to favor the incumbents. A Harris surge in what’s a blue county could make those seats more difficult for the GOP to hold.
A surge of Trump voters could counteract Democratic activity. In Collin County, Republicans are trying to unseat Rep. Mihaela Plesa, who in 2022 became the first Democratic woman to represent Collin County in the Texas Legislature.
Her slim 50% to 49% victory over Republican Jamee Jolly has GOP operatives, including Abbott, looking to flip the seat.
The presidential race is now a sprint to the finish, with Texas down-ballot candidates along for the coattail ride.