While rebuilding the backend of their bullpen might be Plan A, the Texas Rangers will also be eyeing the starting pitching market at the Winter Meetings.
ARLINGTON, Texas — All eyes of the baseball world will be on the Metroplex this week as top executives from all 30 Major League clubs will meet near the home of the Texas Rangers in Dallas to discuss a myriad of topics, including rule changes, the draft lottery for 2025’s First Year Player draft, and the Rule 5 draft.
The most anticipated happenings, however, will surround players on the move. Whether that’s in free agency or via trade, some of baseball’s biggest player acquisitions happen during the Winter Meetings.
For the Rangers, they might not be coming to the table with a lot to play with, but they should have a very clear priority – pitching.
At the outset of the meetings, Texas appears to be in something of a bind when it comes to addressing their needs – they have a lot of spots to fill in their pitching staff, not a lot of money in which to attract free agents, and not much in the way of top tier talent in the minor leagues for trade negotiating leverage.
Texas had roughly $50 million to spend on the payroll in 2025, depending on how close they want to bump up against the luxury tax threshold for next season, where staying under the mark has been the team’s stated goal.
Earlier this winter, the Rangers went out and secured the services of catcher Kyle Higashioka to back up Jonah Heim, leaving them with around $45 million to spend for the remainder of the offseason if they’re willing to spend until the last dollar.
State of the rotation
Coming off of a disappointing 2024 season, Texas is looking at a staff for next year that has Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle atop the rotation. It’s a risky bet for Texas as the two combined for just 23 ⅓ innings last season. Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker, and Jack Leiter will be among those competing for spots, with none of them guaranteed a place in the rotation.
However, one of the Rangers’ declared priorities is to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi, one of the heroes of the 2023 World Series championship team, declined his player option for 2025 and is a free agent. That option was worth $20 million if Eovaldi decided to stay. By declining, Eovaldi is betting on himself to secure a lengthier and possibly more lucrative contract.
There are some early suggestions that Eovaldi could be looking for a shorter term with a higher average annual value, which would just about wipe Texas out on a reunion unless they are going to allot all of the remaining payroll dollars to Eovaldi.
Andrew Heaney is also a potential arm to return to the team. Heaney made the most of his exercised option year, pitching much better than his record would indicate as he finished second behind Eovaldi in innings pitched for the Rangers last season.
Heaney was a victim of poor run support by an offensive dearth on the Rangers’ part. Heaney earned $13 million last season and will also be seeking multiple years going into his age-34 season.
At this point, with the payroll available, a reunion with Heaney seems more likely than Eovaldi; Texas might pursue just one heavily, however, with the far more consistent Eovaldi taking precedence.
Free agent options
There are options outside of a reunion with their incumbent pitchers, of course. Several names are already off the board before the Meetings start – Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matt Boyd, Shane Bieber, and Kyle Hendricks all have homes for 2025.
Depending on the range that the Rangers will want to play in, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are available. If Texas weren’t committed to staying below the tax line, there might be some real possibility in pursuing the top arms.
The reality of staying under the tax threshold means that Eovaldi might be the one headliner that Texas would splurge for. If Eovaldi signs elsewhere, there’s a solid chance that Texas doesn’t open a lot of negotiations with the other big-name pitchers, especially as they have nearly half a bullpen to reconstruct while also considering their overall pitching depth.
Most of the depth that backed up the injury-riddled bullpen and rotation are now primary options for the Major League team going into 2025, unless the team buys some established frontline pitchers. Rocker, Leiter, Gray, and Dunning are nice to have, but there is a lot of inexperience or injury possibility there. At varying levels of success, Eovaldi and Heaney added consistent innings for Texas in 2024, and those innings will need to be replaced.
To accomplish that, Texas may look to add several pillow contract pitchers, those with previously seen potential who underperformed last year, have a lot of life left in their arms, and are in need of reestablishing value.
Hurlers such as Walker Buehler, James Paxton, John Means, or Mike Clevinger make sense here. Buehler, in particular, could be of high interest, coming off half a year in 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and struggling with the Dodgers for much of the 16 games that he pitched before starring in the postseason.
The peripherals and the history are there with Buehler, and going into a full year recovered from TJS, it might be a good selling point to Buehler’s team to put him on a team with a couple of veterans like deGrom and Mahle who are, themselves, going into a full season, fully recovered from the same surgery.
The Rangers, though, will need to be cognizant that if a pitcher like Buehler is of strong interest to them, he is also of strong interest to the 29 other teams in baseball. And adding another recently injured pitcher to a staff with a lot of question marks might make for a risky proposition.
Texas has a lot of pitching problems to try and solve. Not all of them have to be solved this week, but landing a “big fish” while the Winter Meetings are actually in Dallas, where several free agents are already in town, would be an efficient way to jump-start an otherwise slow Rangers offseason, now just two months ahead of Spring Training.
What do you think the Rangers will sign someone for their rotation at this week’s meetings? Share your predictions with Matt on Twitter @FisherWritesMLB.