If recent polls are any suggestion, it appears independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign will have a dramatic impact on the 2024 race. The question is: Will his candidacy cause more damage to President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump?
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A new poll seems to suggest that RFK Jr’s candidacy could harm Trump’s campaign more than Biden’s. However, there still might be more to this than it seems.
The latest national NBC News poll finds the third-party vote — and especially independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — cutting deeper into former President Donald Trump’s support than President Joe Biden’s, though the movement the other candidates create is within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%, in the new NBC News poll.
Yet when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden is the one with a 2-point advantage: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.
The big reason is that the poll finds a greater share of Trump voters in the head-to-head matchup backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden.
In addition, Republican voters view Kennedy much more favorably (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters do (16% positive, 53% negative).
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt explained that at this point, RFK Jr.’s “appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters.”
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Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Horwitt, indicated that this survey’s results are “different than other surveys” and outlined two potential scenarios: “One, it’s an outlier. … Or two, we’re going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what’s to come.”
McInturff is correct when he highlights the difference between the NBC News poll and others analyzing the same question. Last month, The Hill published a report highlighting the findings of multiple surveys showing that RFK Jr.’s campaign would hurt Biden more than Trump.
First and foremost, the bulk of polling — both nationally and in the key states — shows Trump’s advantage over Biden widening slightly when Kennedy’s name is included.
In the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, for example, Trump leads Biden in a one-on-one match-up by a negligible margin: roughly half a percentage point.
But the former president has a 2-point advantage over Biden when Kennedy is listed as an option.
The same pattern is seen in numerous state-level polls. An Emerson College poll in Michigan last month showed Trump up by 2 points without Kennedy’s name being listed, and by 4 points when it was. In Wisconsin, another Emerson poll had Trump expanding his lead to 4 points from 3 points when Kennedy was listed.
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These results seem to make sense given that Kennedy is a Democrat who favors progressive policies – especially on climate change. Moreover, the Kennedy name could make him more attractive to Democratic voters who are dissatisifed with Biden.
But it is also worth noting that Kennedy’s stance on vaccines and his seemingly populist flair might also draw in folks on the right who might not wish to vote for Trump.
In this case, America will be in a wait-and-see mode as the campaign progresses. But one thing is abundantly clear: RFK Jr. could very well become a critical factor in determining whether Trump or Biden will win a second term in the White House.
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