Is Mexico Prepared for Mass Deportations?

Mexico’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will operate in 2025 with 700 million fewer pesos than in 2024, a budget cut that will affect consular services for millions of Mexicans in the United States when they will need them most. 

Ever since Donald Trump won a second term in the White House, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has reiterated there is “a plan” to face the challenge of the massive deportations he promised during his 2024 campaign. Talk of this plan from Sheinbaum has been accompanied by reassurances that Trump’s hardline immigration agenda is not feasible because migrants are too valuable to the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, in the northern Mexico city of Monterrey, Father Luis Eduardo Zavala talks about doubling the bed capacity of the shelters at Casa Monarca, an organization that offers protection to migrants. 

“We’ve been preparing for years for this context,” Zavala explains, while reviewing plans for expansion to welcome incoming deportees. The Sheinbaum government’s denialism paired with border communities’ practicality reveal the deep fault lines in how Mexico is preparing to respond to what Trump has said will be the largest deportation operation in American history. 

Trump’s threats on migration are no longer hypothetical. The wheels of his immigration agenda have already been set into motion, and he has the support of Congress and state governments. The Republican majority in the U.S. House passed the Laken Riley Act in early January. It expands detention powers for even minor offenses and would hand the state attorneys general new powers. In Texas, Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham has offered land in Starr County for deportation facilities, and Governor Greg Abbott assured the National Guard and the Department of Public Safety that there was “help on the way” to support their immigration enforcement efforts. 

Like in 2016, immigration enforcement is at the core of what Trump offered his voters. And he will be pressured to deliver rapidly and aggressively. Upon taking office, Trump is expected to issue a large number of executive orders regarding immigration. The orders could end temporary protections for migrants from certain countries. He could also target DACA recipients, migrants who arrived in the United States as children. Trump has even suggested he could use the military to assist in his planned deportations.

“I don’t think you’re facing the prospect of a deportation plan of 11.2 million people,” noted former Mexican ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhán, “but I think there will be very significant deportation measures.” The Mexican government’s greatest fear, he added, is that Trump will end up forcing Mexico to accept deportees from other countries.

Mexico is no stranger to receiving deportees. What would make the situation different is the proposed scale and who would be coming back. “This isn’t the migration of deportees from before,” explained Jesús Javier Peña, an expert on migration and Mexico-U.S. relations from El Colegio de la Frontera Norte [El Colef] in Ciudad Juárez. “We’re talking about people who might have spent many years living in the United States, with family ties, assets, and U.S.-born children.” 

These aren’t just people who recently crossed; they are established families facing sudden uprooting. “We need to understand,” Peña emphasized, “that these deportees will have completely different needs and expectations than previous waves.”

So far, the Mexican government’s response exhibits troubling gaps. Sheinbaum insists that Mexico is ready. She speaks of strengthening the capacity of the consulates. The government has contemplated the distribution of panic buttons to migrants so they can alert their families and the consulates if they are taken in. This discourse stands in contrast with the budget cuts to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, despite what is certain to be an increased workload with deportations and trade negotiations under Trump. Critics also point to the continued appointment of inexperienced political allies to key consular positions and the maintenance of a low-profile ambassador in Washington as signs that Sheinbaum isn’t taking the threat of the new Trump administration seriously. 

“The greatest weakness,” said Sarukhán—who served as ambassador under conservative President Felipe Calderón, who defeated Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the controversial 2006 election 12 years before López Obrador became president—“is probably the most pernicious legacy of the López Obrador administration. He gutted both bureaucratically and in terms of manpower, the ability of a series of Mexican agencies that will need to play a critical role.” 

Closer to the U.S.-Mexico border, in Nuevo León, a limited response system has been put into place by civil society organizations and local authorities. “We have three shelters working in coordination, with capacity for 600, 300, and 200 people, respectively,” said Father Zavala. The shelters do not just provide beds; they offer medical care, psychological support, and legal assistance. 

The Nuevo León state government has moved beyond emergency response to planning ahead.

“Along with the Labor Secretary, we’ve developed the ‘Labor Inclusion Program for Migrants,’” explained Martha Herrera, Secretary of Equality and Inclusion of the Nuevo León government. “We have a group of employers willing to formally hire this population.”  Herrera remarked that, since 2022, they have provided assistance to over 12,000 migrants from 43 countries. 

She acknowledged that documentation poses a significant challenge: returnees need CURP numbers, tax IDs, and social security registration, but she adds that they are working to streamline these processes. Ground-level preparation in Nuevo León has extended to the creation of a formal protocol that involves 37 organizations to coordinate attention to migrants. Zavala points out that organizations in the state are ready to meet the moment: “There is this cooperation and political will.” The protocol covers the long-term integration of migrants and emergency responses.

“Municipal and state governments don’t have responsibilities in terms of migration policy,” Sarukhán observed. “That’s a federal government attribute; many times municipal and state governments are left with the short end of the stick.” 

As federal resources diminish, the jurisdictional conundrum becomes more critical. “One of the main challenges facing the arrival of a significant number of migrants is the lack of living spaces,” Monterrey’s Mayor Adrián de la Garza contended. The city is working to map available housing options for migrants, but capacity is still limited. 

Beyond housing and employment, returnees need comprehensive support. “The professional and specialized attention that migration demands requires social workers, psychologists, and lawyers,” said Zavala. These are services that cannot be improvised, and the need for them can be even more critical given the profile of potential deportees. 

Peña, of El Colef, emphasized that traditional deportee services won’t be enough this time around. “We need to anticipate the needs these people will have in relation to their migration situation,” he explains. The complexity of their cases will require expertise that many organizations that support migrants do not currently have.

Adding another layer of complexity are security concerns. “If you’ve got a significant number of third-country nationals, they are preyed upon by organized crime,” Sarukhán warned. This risk extends to Mexican citizens, particularly those who still have families and assets in the United States. Trump’s massive deportations could create new security vulnerabilities in border states where local security forces are already overburdened. 

Far to the south, from Mexico City, Sheinbaum claims that “The relationship between Mexico and the United States will be good and respectful,” but skeptics maintain the government doesn’t really have a plan for how to deal with Trump. In the weeks after the U.S. election, the Mexican government’s actions have suggested business as usual, not preparation for a crisis. This lack of preparedness threatens to undermine even the most thought-out efforts being made by border communities. 

“In Nuevo León, we know it is possible to address this,” Zavala insisted. As the border braces for what’s coming, they’re doing so with little more than their own resources and willpower. Time is running out, and Mexico’s patchwork preparations to meet Trump’s immigration agenda will soon be put to the test.

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