Ken Paxton’s chances of beating John Cornyn in Texas: Polls

  

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has told Newsweek he is launching a primary challenge to fellow Republican and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, accusing him of “turning his back on President Trump and the America First agenda.”

Polling conducted by Lake Research Partners and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates indicate Paxton enters the race with more support from grassroots Texas Republicans than Cornyn. A third poll from the University of Houston was more ambiguous.

Newsweek contacted Cornyn for comment on Wednesday via email outside of regular office hours.

Why It Matters

In recent years the Republican Party of Texas has been rocked by infighting which included an impeachment bid aimed at Paxton in 2023 on charges including bribery and abuse of public trust which resulted in his acquittal in the state Senate.

In his announcement Paxton accused Cornyn of failing to back Donald Trump‘s political agenda, a charge the senator strongly denies, showing the hold the president currently enjoys over the Republican Party. Paxton’s popularity with grassroots Republicans in Texas indicates support for his hard-line conservative stance and staunch support for President Trump’s agenda.

What To Know

In March the Texas Public Opinion Research polled 700 registered voters in the Lone Star State. Of those identifying as Republican primary voters, 27 percent said they either support or lean toward Cornyn in a potential Republican Senate primary against Paxton, against 38 percent for the current Texas attorney general.

A survey conducted by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates between January 28 and February 2 found Paxton leading Cornyn in a hypothetical Republican primary matchup by 53 percent of the vote against 28 percent.

This poll was cited by Paxton when he officially announced he was running for the Senate seat on Tuesday. Tony Fabrizio, the principle in Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, worked as chief pollster for the Trump campaign in the 2024 presidential election.

The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs polled 1,200 Texan adults between January 13 and 21, with a 2.83 percent margin of error. Of these 556 identified as likely 2026 Texas primary voters while 377 said they had voted in one or both of the 2022 and 2024 GOP primaries. From these two groups 36 percent said they “definitely would consider voting for Ken Paxton” in the primary, against 32 percent for Cornyn.

Ken Paxton and John Cornyn
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaking during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meeting on February 23, 2024, in National Harbor, Maryland (left) and Senator John Cornyn talking to members of the media on…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaking during the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) meeting on February 23, 2024, in National Harbor, Maryland (left) and Senator John Cornyn talking to members of the media on February 04, 2025 in Washington, DC.
MANDEL NGAN/AFP/KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY

However in better news for the incumbent a further 43 percent said they “might consider” voting for him in the primary contest, while just 32 percent said the same about Paxton.

Cornyn has announced he is seeking another term and secured an endorsement from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who described him as “tireless and instrumental in building our majority.”

In 2024 Cornyn came second behind John Thune in the race to replace Mitch McConnell as Republican Senate leader

According to The Dallas Morning News, Democrat Colin Allred, who lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in November, is “seriously considering” a run for Cornyn’s Senate seat in 2026.

What People Are Saying

In a statement provided to Newsweek Paxton said: “I’m running for U.S. Senate to fight for President Trump’s agenda and take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment. John Cornyn has been in Washington for over two decades, and he has turned his back on President Trump and the America First agenda time after time.”

In a post on X, Cornyn’s campaign team wrote: “During his first term John Cornyn voted with President Trump more than 95 percent of current Senators, securing the votes for his biggest accomplishments as his Whip. Democrats are trying to destroy President Trump, and he and Texas need a battle-tested conservative who knows how to protect his agenda in the Senate and won’t be outsmarted by Chuck Schumer.

“Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings which will cost the state millions.”

What Happens Next

The upcoming battle between Cornyn and Paxton is likely to be heated, with both candidates aggressively pursuing an endorsement from President Trump. Both candidates will be forced to emphasize their conservative credentials in a bid to please Republican primary voters, which could provide an opening for their eventual Democratic challenger.

 

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