Here we are again, time for a look at the 125th week of Vladimir Putin’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The big focus this past week was the storm surge after the NATO Summit.
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Going into the Summit, there were mixed messages about Ukraine’s path to NATO membership and about US policy on using American weapons to hit military targets inside Russia. The NATO membership question of “if” seems pretty settled. Ukraine will become a NATO member. The “when” question is still unsettled and depends on an end of fighting and something that can plausibly be described as an armistice.
The US is still denying permission to strike targets more than 60 miles into Russia. Because of the US stance, other major NATO nations are following suit. Ukrainian officials are upbeat that this decision will change in their favor. So long as Jake Sullivan and his merry band of midwits call the shots, it won’t. They are literally afraid to commit to ending this war because they can’t imagine a Europe if either side wins. In this way, they are the offspring of George H. W. Bush, who tried to prop up the USSR in its last days because he and his generation of “foreign policy realists” couldn’t imagine a world without the USSR. The consensus on how to respond to Russia’s continuing assault on Ukraine is slowly fracturing, with Poland and the Baltic States advocating more forceful steps. Poland sent up a trial balloon a couple of weeks ago that would have allowed Polish Air Force fighters to fly patrols over Western Ukraine to protect it from cruise missiles. That idea was shelved, but I think it will reemerge in the next few months.
Another issue emerging from the Summit was the US-Germany announcement that the US would begin deploying intermediate-range missiles in Germany. Russia, naturally, is having a cow, but that is what they do. In Russia’s world, and in the world of Putin’s fluffers, it is completely fine for Russia to base nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad that threaten Europe, but Russia has a unique right not to be threatened in return. This is just like Russia’s demand that it be given a veto over the foreign and domestic policy of its neighbors because it wants to feel “secure.” This is my post on the subject: Russia Goes Bonkers Over NATO Having the Same Weapons in Europe as Has Russia.
One of the constant narratives pushed by Russian propaganda and the people in the West willing to push it is that Russia’s economy hasn’t been damaged. I think that is nonsense. Last week, the head of the Russian National Bank sounded the alarm about the shortage of labor and capital needed to keep Russia’s economy moving. This week, we have a new data point.
Read it again. North Korea is exporting apples to Russia. This is from TASS.
Russia and North Korea agreed to start deliveries of apples to the Russian market, the press service of the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) told TASS.
Things are going to get even tougher as the US and UK crack down on the “shadow fleet” of oil tankers that carry illegal Russian oil to other countries (I’m looking at you, India), where it is refined and resold.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues
Putin’s War, Week 115. ATACMS Makes a Splash and Russia Opens a New Front
Putin’s War, Week 114. Russia Races Against Time As Ukraine Tries to Hold On
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Own Goal
When the Russians blew up the Nova Kakhovka Dam in June 2023, they did it to stop any Ukrainian advance across the Dneiper River; see Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding. The short-term effect was that Russian defenses on the left bank of the river were flooded while Ukrainian lines on the higher right bank were untouched. As the reservoir behind the dam drained, the canal carrying water to Crimea reduced in volume, causing hardship there. NASA is now documenting the return of most of Crimea and Occupied Kherson to a desert. Read the whole thread.
Slovenia and Ukraine Sign Security Pact
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Baltic States Finally Have Russia-Free Power
Lukashenko Takes a Pass
One of Putin’s goals since the early days of the “Special Military Operation” has been to turn Belarus into a combatant.
RELATED:
Belarus Prepares to Join Russia’s Unprovoked Assault on Ukraine – RedState
Belarus Withdraws Ambassador as Ukraine Warns of Impending Attack From Belarus – RedState
Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko seems to have finally decided that “all signs point to no.”
He hasn’t merely said he won’t go to war; he’s apparently signaling that he wants to be involved in peace negotiations.
It Must Be a Day Ending in Y
They are threatening to nuke us again. There is no surer sign that Russia knows that victory is out of reach than the nuke-’em-till-they-glow nonsense that even the Russians don’t believe.
Russia Embraces Bombing Children’s Hospital
On the day before the NATO Summit convened, Russia carried out a missile strike on the largest children’s hospital in Ukraine. First, they claimed it was the fault of a failed Ukrainian surface-to-air missile. When it was revealed that the SAM warhead was only 44 pounds and couldn’t penetrate a building because of the warhead design, the Russians said they were aiming at a legitimate target over a mile away. This is somewhat plausible given the blinding incompetence of Russia’s military. However, all factors together indicated that this was a deliberate attack designed to deliver an in-your-face message to the diplomats assembling in Washington, DC. See Russian Missile Attack Levels Children’s Hospital in Kiev As NATO Summit Kicks Off for more details.
More truthful was an essay published by a professional Russian propagandist. Andrei Perla is the director of the Social Design Agency, which has been sanctioned for spreading disinformation and misinformation on behalf of the Kremlin. The essay was titled, “A Children’s hospital in Kyiv is not an accident. It’s time to recognize that and stop being afraid.”
- “We must take into account – simply and scarily: there are no people on that side. Not one person. Our missiles don’t kill people. There’s not one person there. Un-humans are there.”
- “If we don’t accept that as a given, if we don’t forbid ourselves to consider them humans, to feel sorry for them, save them – we will weaken ourselves.”
- “So – simple and scary, but we must not justify ourselves for the strike on the children’s hospital. We must say: do you want this to stop? Give up. Capitulate. And then, maybe, we will spare you.”
- “Maybe it’s time we agreed that there’s no civilian population on that side of the Dnipro? And turn their cities into ‘Gaza’ – with a simple and clear goal to save our children from death.”
While we’re on the subject of dehumanizing Ukrainians, Russian military correspondent and propagandist Alexander Sladkov had this offering.
Russia Using UNSC to Challenge War Crimes Accusations
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says he intends to demand the names of all the Ukrainian civilians slaughtered by Russian troops in Bucha in early 2022.
At first glance, this may seem rather strange, because the Russian crimes in Bucha have been well documented and studied in detail. And not only by Ukrainian side, but first of all by international investigators from the first days of de-occupation. The names of Russian soldiers, who killed and tortured Ukrainians, were identified.
Why did Lavrov raise this issue now, after the Russian shelling of the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv?
The fact is that it is now very convenient for Russia to use its chairmanship of the UN Security Council to discredit the West and Ukraine. So, next week in New York, they want to accuse Ukraine and its allies of “manipulation” and “false accusations of war crimes in Ukraine against Russia.”
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There are two longish threads; you really need to read them all.
Operational Level
The frontlines remained essentially unchanged, with both sides making positional gains. The major Russian focus continues to be in Donetsk. The Russian offensive around Chasiv Yar has clearly burned out, but the area of the former Avdiivka Salient continues to be the focal point of the Russian offensive effort. The Russians are notching up multiple small gains, which will, in my estimation, require Ukraine to give up a sizeable piece of territory unless something changes. More on that below.
Russian airstrikes continue to decline and now seem to run in an approximate nine-day cycle of high activity. June’s recorded airstrikes were at a six-month low. Missile strikes in June were at the lowest level since the war began.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, indicated that Ukraine is anticipating another attack from Russia into northern Ukraine. Presumably, this offensive would happen to the west of the current effort in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
The objective of any such attack would be primarily to give Ukraine one more area to defend and to fortify a narrative Russia is trying to maintain of an inevitable Russian victory. Another front would strain already overstressed lines of communication, and then there is the question of where the forces for such an operation would come from. None of this is to say that it can’t happen; only if it does happen is it a PR operation, not a military one.
Perhaps related is this statement by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in which she accuses Ukraine of plotting to demolish the Kiev and Kanive Reservoirs. These are the reservoirs on the Dnieper River immediately north and south of Kiev. This is very similar to the accusation made before the Russians destroyed the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Reservoir; see Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding – RedState.
Destroying the Kiev Reservoir dam would put most of suburban Kiev underwater, so it’s hard to see what Ukraine would gain from such a move.
I’d like to take a second to hit another issue. Several high-visibility articles claim that the Russian Army has not only made good its losses from the war, it is getting better. I call bullsh**. The Russian Army that died in 2022 represented decades of experience and training. Today, the Russian Army receives cursory training and is equipped with weapons and materials much older than those used in the original invasion. Russia does not have a program of rotating experienced soldiers out of the line to the training base and because of that Russia has not been in Ukraine 29 months, it has been in Ukraine one month 29 times. In my view, this thread reflects the state of affairs more accurately than anything else I’ve seen.
Russia Creates “Sanitary Zone”…Inside Russia
One of Putin’s stated objectives in his invasion of Kharkiv Oblast was to prevent Ukrainian forces from staging raids into Russia.
Mission accomplished. Dmitry “Pornstache” Peskov announced that 14 towns in Russia have had their civilian populations removed and access to that area is prohibited.
Last Russian Warship Leaves Sevastopol
But just because the Russian Navy has abandoned Sevastopol, it doesn’t mean it is safe.
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Russia Accuses Ukraine of Targeting Its Aircraft Carrier
This seems like a strange thing to advertise, but we are talking about Russia.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said it prevented an attempt by Ukrainian intelligence to destroy the country’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, in northern Russia.
They also accused Ukraine of trying to recruit a Russian pilot to hijack a Tu-22M3 supersonic strategic bomber jet.
There is no independent verification of either story, but breaking up fantastical plots deep inside Russia might look good inside the FSB. Telling the world that a country you won’t admit exists can do this seems counterintuitive.
Cannon Barrel Shortage
There is a narrative on the “give Russia everything it wants” side that asserts Russia has infinite resources to pursue the war despite its GDP being smaller than that of New York. Even during the “Great Patriotic War,” Russia depended on the US for tanks, airplanes, diesel, trucks, locomotives, food, and even factories. Today, Russia is a faint shadow of the USSR’s industrial base.
I’ve posted several times about the drastic drop in vehicles and equipment stored in Russian depots. We’re seeing tanks that were obsolete by 1990 appearing on the battlefield. The Economist explores this in an article headlined Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out (economist.com).
There is one part of this article I want to deal with here because I’ve predicted it several times. While the media is infatuated with ammunition production (spoiler: we have zero idea how much ammunition Russia is capable of making each year beyond the number the Russians give us), they are overlooking something fundamental. That is the wear-and-tear on artillery gun barrels. An artillery gun barrel is good for about 10,000 rounds (I don’t want to get into “effective full charge” rounds and what all of that means). When you cross that line, the barrel can still be used, but you have less and less of an idea of where the round will hit because of increased gas seepage when the round is fired. At some point, the barrel or breech will probably develop hairline cracks, and then it will resemble a banana peel.
The irony is that the more ammunition you fire, the more guns you lose. And it isn’t only the barrel that wears out; the recoil mechanism also wears out.
Another major concern is artillery-barrel production. For now, with the help of North Korea, Russia appears to have enough shells, probably about 3m this year—sufficient to outgun the Ukrainians until recently by at least 5:1 and sometimes by much more. But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.
Yet, says Mr Luzin, there are only two factories that have the sophisticated Austrian-made rotary forging machines (the last one was imported in 2017) needed to make the barrels. They can each produce only around 100 barrels a year, compared with the thousands needed. Russia has never made its own forging machines; they imported them from America in the 1930s and looted them from Germany after the war.
The solution has been to cannibalise the barrels from old towed artillery and fit them to self-propelled howitzers. Richard Vereker, an open-source analyst, thinks that by the start of this year about 4,800 barrels had been swapped out. How long the Russians can carry on doing this depends on the condition of the 7,000 or so that may be left. Mr Gjerstad says that with multi-launch rocket systems, such as the tos-1a, eking out barrel life has already meant much shorter bursts of fire.
No matter how much ammunition the Russians have, they can rebuild 100 guns per year. Just like I posted about the lack of spare parts reducing Russian Air Force sorties, the lack of spare barrels will ensure that Russian artillery becomes less of a factor on the battlefield.
And there is always the unexpected.
This is the solution.
New Factory Coming
The US is bringing its first cannon barrel factory online in probably a half-century.
Prisoner of War Exchange
Russian Official Issues “Take No Prisoners” Order
Shortly after a Ukrainian unit released a longish video of a trench-clearing operation in which a Russian soldier cowering in a dugout was killed, former Russian president and prime minister and current deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitri Medvedev issued a directive that the Russian Army stop taking prisoners. (The translation is from Telegram’s built-in translation app.)
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My comrades are discussing what the Ukrainian monsters did to our prisoner, referring to the world-famous Geneva Conventions. I was also taught well at my native university.
You don’t even need to write about it. There can be no mercy here. There is no place for goodness here. Just kill! Like Simonov, whom I have referred to many times! Remember? Don’t feel sorry for them, don’t! Nobody! Did they at least pardon someone? Only total executions. There is no choice. There are no words about mercy. There is no humanity. There is no pardon. There is no right to life for them. Execute, execute and execute. This is the right of war for the enemy!
So kill at least one!So kill him quickly!As many times as you see him,Somany times kill him!
This is the whole video.
The event that has Medvedev exercised takes place at 5:04. To fully understand what is happening, I’d recommend starting the video at around 4:00. This is the take from an account run by a Russian-speaker.
It looks ugly, but if you are the first guy down the trench, adrenalin is pumping, and you have tunnel vision. It’s up to the guy wanting to surrender to figure out how to do that. Once you are within a few feet of the enemy, the odds of successfully surrendering from a hiding position are about zero. Was the guy cowering and waiting to surrender? Or was he left behind to cover a retreat and lost his nerve? It doesn’t really matter.
What does matter is Medvedev’s call to kill prisoners. In October 1942, the German High Command, acting on an order from Hitler, issued Kommandobefehl. It ordered the summary execution of any Allied commando captured behind German lines, regardless of the circumstances. After the war, merely transmitting this order was enough to send German officers to the gallows. Any just end to this war has to include holding Medvedev and others in positions of authority accountable for inciting war crimes.
Speaking of War Crimes
Last week, I posted about Russia sending soldiers back into battle before they were healed. The Telegraph reports that recently captured Ukrainian prisoners are driven into battle ahead of Russian troops. Read the whole story.
Wanted, Dead or Alive
The Russian military has put a bounty on F-16 aircraft. If the claims for destroyed F-16s run like those for HIMARS, Abrams tanks, and Patriot missile launchers, the Russian government will be bankrupt within a few days.
Ukrainian City Attacked
More Leopards
Spain is sending 20 refurbished Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. They will join the approximately 400 Leopards in Ukrainian service and will be a welcome arrival for one of the 14 new Ukrainian brigades currently training and equipping.
New Weapons
Barrage Balloons, Part II
Last week, I posted about Russia bringing out barrage balloons to protect critical infrastructure. This is a look at how they plan to use them. I’d point out that defending against drones is not quite the same as defending against WW II bombers and that managing barrage balloons is a labor-intensive exercise. I don’t see this going anywhere, but often, public relations is the real purpose of projects like this.
Drone Interceptor
The search for cost-effective ways of combatting the drone threat continues. This is a new one from Ukraine. I’m not sure how it engages other drones.
New Tank Configuration
I try to keep us all updated on the equipment modifications emerging in this war. This is a superannuated Russian T-54 tank fitted with an anti-drone “cope cage.” The cope cage has been modified to accept a pintle-mounted machinegun for anti-aircraft use.
Combat Operations
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Dirtbikes and HummXis Don’t Work
I’ve cataloged the use of dirtbikes and Chinese DesertCross ATVs as assault vehicles since it was first reported. My first instinct was that it was a very dumb idea. Giving a soldier a dirtbike doesn’t make him proficient. The terrain rarely lends itself to high-speed rides. The noise of the bike alerts defenders and it also deprives the rider of situational awareness. Plus, these vehicles are not employed in a mass attack where the speed might be decisive; instead, they are sent out in ones and twos. I think we need to view these vehicles as a motivational tool for Russian assault tools. It is like the Congolese Simbas charging “Mad Mike” Hoare’s 5 Commando holding palm fronds in front of them to turn bullets into water.
In this video, a singleton assault bike attacker is dismounted by what seems to be small-arms fire, flees, and is hunted down by an FPV drone.
Trench Combat
A single Ukrainian soldier holds off a Russian squad clearing his trench until drones arrive. At 1:07, reserve Ukrainian infantry arrives to finish the job.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Teach a Man a Fish…
A Swing and a Miss
Three Russian soldiers on a Humm-Xi have a close call with a Ukrainian FPV drone.
Unclear on the Concept
Permutations of the massive “cope cages” on Russian tanks continue.
No Place to Hide
Two Russian soldiers hide from a hunting FPV, just not all that well.
View From the TC’s Hatch
First-person video from a Bradley’s Track Commander’s hatch.
More Bradley video because I like it.
Close Encounter of the Worst Kind
No spoilers. Watch the whole thing.
A Technique…
A jury-rigged Russian minesweeper in action on the Dnieper River.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlyboke-Vovchansk
Fighting continues in both Hlyboke and Vovchansk. The lines remain stable.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
There was a lot of fighting in many areas, but none of it involved larger units. Both sides made positional gains, but none offered promise for more extensive operations.
Donbas
Chasiv Yar-Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
The front line remains stable.
Avdiivka
If I had to pick a single area where I think the Russians could put together an offensive, this would be it. The topography is not as hostile to east-west movement as it is in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna area. The northern part of the sector seems brittle and doesn’t appear to have recovered from the disastrously fouled-up relief-in-place in late April (Putin’s War, Week 113. US Aid Arrives Just in Time and a Russian Attack Nearly Turns Into a Breakthrough).
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The steady nibbling away at Novoselivka Persha will inevitably force a withdrawal of all Ukrainian forces behind the small reservoir to avoid having them cut off. Look for a new frontline to form on the line from Novoselivka Persha to the west bank of the reservoir. Absent Ukraine committing reserve forces here, it is hard to see how a retreat is to be avoided.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
The line remains stable with positional gains by both sides.
Kherson
Krynky
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Krynky under the pressure of glide bomb and artillery attacks, but the bridgeheads remain secure, and there is no evidence of the large-scale offensive the Russians would have to pull together to clear the area.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Power Outages Due to Drone Strikes
Coast Guard Base, Lake Donuslav
Russia
Oil Storage Facility, Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast
Naval Base, Novorossiysk
What’s Next
I think both sides are up against a time crunch, and they need to make something happen. Russia needs to gain enough ground by the end of the year to force an end to the war, or the momentum will slip unalterably in Ukraine’s favor. The available data shows that the burn rate of Russian combat vehicles, artillery, and soldiers can’t be sustained, and Russia’s economy is seen as not being in crisis only due to Russian economic data being classified as a state secret.
Ukraine, too, has to put up some Ws on the ground. I don’t think that a Trump presidency is going to be what David Sacks and the Putin-bot community think it will be. Remember, JD Vance’s objection to funding Ukraine was the absence of an articulated strategy and outcome. That said, gains on the ground will provide some insurance that the US stays involved, and if the US does back away from helping Ukraine defend itself, then it makes a better case for the EU continuing support.
I continue with my prediction of a Ukrainian limited offensive in western Zapoizhzhia oriented on the railway lines connecting Rostov with Crimea.